It’s time to take a break and cool down.

Posted May 3, 2010 by claghornweatheranalysis
Categories: Uncategorized

On April 27, 2010 a major late Spring storm moved into Northern New England. Computer models were predicting snow, and lots of it, for the higher elevations of Northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and extreme NW Maine.

My kids were both on Spring Vacation from school all week. When I first observed the weather data coming in late on Monday afternoon, I was very shocked to see a Winter Storm Warning issued for my area. Never in my life, could I ever remember such a big, Winter Storm Warning for Late April – WOW! by Monday evening, I knew there would be history made here in Vermont. What I didn’t expect was the incredible amount of arctic air that became infused into our area, even at the lower elevations . Tuesday morning, temps rapidly fell from the lower 40′s to the lower 30′s by noon across NW Vermont including nearby Burlington, VT.

When I was waking up Tuesday morning, I had the window inched open, as the night was mild and breezy. Winds began to drill in arctic air from the NNW and a steady cold rain was falling. It was time to shut the window and turn up the heat just a bit.

My kids were having a friend come over for a play date soon, so I had to wake them up. My wife was at work and I decided to get my coffee in the kitchen before my kiddies would invade the area asking for some breakfest. The rain began pelting against the screened windows. The temp was around 38. Great, yet another cold rain for my area and snow for nearby Mount Mansfield, I thought to myself. The wind outside calmed down and the cold rain continued. Five minutes later, my kids were wide awake. I let them put on Sponge Bob, as I enjoyed my coffee and toast.

Much to my surprise, fat snowflakes began to fall as the temp dropped to 34. As I looked over to a hill just to our NW, curtains of heavy snow began to cascade down to the valley of Jericho. By 7:15am all snow was falling.

You have to remember that I’m a total, self proclaimed — weather nutcase! It’s April 27th and we are going to have a snowstorm. It was a thrill for me. My younger children were telling me to stop taking photos of the snow! Our guest arrived and my children became occupied playing board games with her. It was around 8:30am when the landscape outside changed from a lush, countryside April green, to a December winter wonderland.

The photo above was after 2 hours past. By 10:30am our secondary and main roads became snow covered as the temp continued to drop and hold steady at 32. The day before it was 68 and sunny. A beautiful spring day. Bumble bees were out and the trees began to turn green while other trees continued to look bare. Wild country flowers were blooming and my lawn was growing rapidly with the strong April sunshine and fresh Vermont air. You could smell the flowers in the air. It was hard to imagine a monster snowstorm would clobber Northern Vermont for the next 2 days!

Enjoy the photos below of the historic snowstorm of April 27th and 28th that pounded Northern New England. Over 2 FT of heavy wet snow fell in many areas.

Photo above: Tuesday afternoon around 4pm. with nearly a foot of new snow along Raceway Rd, Jericho, VT.

Above: Tuesday afternoon around 4pm., Picnic area off Raceway Rd. Looking east at my neighborhood in the distance. The snow hid the surrounding mountains including the majestic, Mount Mansfield, which wasn’t seen for days!

Above: Wednesday morning in my yard. The snow was approaching 18 inches. Jericho, VT. It was spooky to hear trees snapping in the background. Over 16,000 people lost power in the local area.

Above: It was 85 today and this photo was taken just 4 days ago. Wednesday morning, April 28th in my backyard as the snow just continued to fall.

Above: A nearby farm off Raceway, Rd. in Jericho, VT – Wednesday morning, April 28th.

Above: My friends call me SnoBoy, I wonder why.

It’s time to wrap up this story and get back on track with Spring. Today, it was hot and humid as I watched my son play soccer in Burlington, VT. Trees in the Champlain Valley are in full bloom. Jericho and surrounding areas have lost all the snow cover. It’s lush outside and as Spring has Sprung Back into Summer, leaving the storm story that I shared with you, forever in my weather memory banks.

Before closing, I also want to painfully acknowledge, there were many trees in our area damaged and destroyed by the heavy snow. Some cars were even smashed and properties were damaged. Many people had no power for days. So this story has it’s darker side and my thoughts and prayers are with the people who had damage or even injuries from this severe Spring storm. Some of you are sick of the snow, and I understand that. It’s time to switch gears for the next several months and focus on the warmer side of the life. Summer Vacation!

Coming up in a few weeks, I will be looking further into our future to see what kind of Summer we are in for. We have a fading El Nino and I expect a developing La Nina by late Summer or early Fall. Until then, stay cool and put on your sunscreen. You take care!

David Claghorn
Weather Analysis Team
You can also visit my facebook page : SnoBoy-Weather.

April’s Weather Amusement.

Posted April 17, 2010 by claghornweatheranalysis
Categories: Uncategorized

What goes Up, Must Come Down.
Friday, April 16, 2010 – Our weather in the NE continues to grow progressively colder as we head into the mid point of April. The jet stream is changing it’s dynamics to deliver some shivers to parts of the Mid Atlantic and NE over this upcoming weekend. NNE will become a winter wonderland after having temps in the 80′s just over a week ago. Parts of the Mid Atlantic will continue to be in the battle zone with additional steady rain and possible thunderstorms tonight.

Radar shown below with a line of thunderstorms moving through Eastern PA. Click on the image to show motion.

Photo shown below features clouds crashing into a severe thunderstorm that rolled through the Pittsburgh area today.

April Can Bring Days of Summer and Winter.
Here in Northern Vermont snow was falling this morning and accumulating up to 6 inches in some spots. Additional snow tonight will be falling in the same areas that were hit this morning with snow. As a upper low moves south east from SE Canada tonight, the mid levels of the atmosphere will cool just enough to increase snowfall to the valley locations in Northern NY, VT, NH and Western ME.

Photo shown below from Peacham VT this morning. Special thanks to the iceman, on the AccuWeather Forums, for providing this beautiful photo from NE Vermont.

Late Winter Conditions for Many This Weekend.
Now that the lawns are nice and green and the daffodils are blooming here in Northern New England, it’s time for a Springtime Snow Event. The highest totals will be around the Mount Washington area in NH as the upper low moves SE from Canada overnight and merges with a costal low south of New England to produce showers of cold rain in the Mid Atlantic and NE, with a change over to wet, accumulating snow in the higher elevations of New England. most places over 1,ooo FT may see 2 to 4 inches tonight and additional snow Saturday night in New England and Northern NY, VT, NH and ME. The valleys floors may also see a coating to as much as a few inches by Sunday morning. Get your cameras ready and boots. The Killington Ski Resort will be opened for business into June.

Image below shows the predicted precipitation over this weekend. Notice the sharp gradient in the North East. This is almost reversed from our historic winter pattern of 2009-2010.

Could This be a Preview Into Next Winter?
Let’s try and get through this weekend first before trying to look into next winter. Although, I will be posting a special long range seasonal forecast as we get into Summer.

Image below shows our daily high temps in the US. You can see how much of the Mid Atlantic and NE will cool down considerably over the weekend compared to todays highs. The contrast in temps today created conditions favorable for those afternoon PA thunderstorms.

Map Source: AccuWeather.com

As the Pacific Cools, the Atmosphere Spins 360.

The Next Few Weeks.
Computer models are showing a major cool down for much of the nation. The second half of April will feature more in the way of unsettled conditions as the jet streams buckles in response to seasonal transitions and the cooler Pacific.

Image below shows the cooling trend.

Image below shows the cooling trend in the Pacific Ocean. Currently our El Nino is dropping off towards a La Nina possible by next Fall.

Implications with a Cooling Pacific.
The months ahead will be unsettled for much of the country as the Pacific continues to cool. Globally the impacts could be rather dramatic. A growing chill in the waters of the Pacific, combined with weak sun spot activity and growing volcanic activities in the Northern Hemisphere regions, signal for some changing weather patterns around the world . Our Hurricane season looks to be a busy one for the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast with the El Nino fading away and allowing for favorable wind currents to support increased Hurricane activity. Stay tuned for future updates as we continue this wild ride of extremes as we head into Summer 2010.

David Claghorn’s Weather Analysis
My e-mail: clagville@comcast.net

Become a fan of: SnoBoy Weather. On Facebook.

The Turning Point.

Posted April 2, 2010 by claghornweatheranalysis
Categories: Uncategorized

El Nino’s Exteme Season’s 2009 – 2010 Continues.
What a wild ride from December to March of this year with — 24 Nor’Easter’s! I’ve lost count. The worst Winter in 10,000 years? Well, if you live in Vermont, you may feel lucky or cursed depending out how you look at things. Vermont had a beautiful White Christmas Season followed by a mega sweet, record shattering, powdery snowstorm for Burlington, VT during the coldest period of the winter. Well over 36 inches in some towns of NW Vermont. January also became Burlington, VT’s snowiest month on record with nearly 48 inches.

Early February turned dull for New England, including Vermont as several Nor’Easter’s Hit the new 2010 SnowBelt of the US that included: Johnstown, PA, over to Philly and all of MD, DE, Southern and Central NJ over to NYC. Just when it looked like it was safe for NW New England, a massive 20 to 30 inches of heavy wet snow fell in Northern VT and Northern New York, on February 24th. Thousands of people lost power as trees and power lines fell under the crushing weight of the wet heavy snow. Then a few days later a severe Nor’Easter moved NW and crashed into the NYC area dumping over 20 inches of wind swept snow. NW NJ and parts of NY received over 30 inches of snow. Further north, it rained in New England. The storm was called a SNOWICANE by many.

March turned warmer than normal with Nor’Easter’s bringing heavy rain instead of snow to the Mid Atlantic and North Eastern part of the US. This past week severe widespread flooding hit the Mid Atlantic up through Eastern New England with many towns receiving the worst flooding on record in CT, RI and MASS. My thought’s and prayers continue for the victim’s of this latest Nor’Easter. It’s a wet blanket thrown on the storm-punched Mid Atlantic and NE.



The Current El Nino is Weakening.
The sweet side of El Nino will appear well into next week. The same areas that were hit with the big snowstorms of this past winter will have a long stretch of historic warmth. Much of the NE will be in the lower 80’s by Saturday.



Season’s Change.
The skies in the near future will feature bright sunshine as southwesterly winds bring in the welcomed relief of pleasant weather. Get your cameras ready.

Below is a NOAA chart showing how warm it will get this weekend!

Saturday

Sunday


Cooler Along the Jersey Shore. Fur Sure.
Below i
s a map of NJ’s late afternoon temps today. Notice the cooling near the shore.

Looking Down The Road a Piece.

It will be a week with different results for different areas.

•  Northern New England turns chillier by next Tuesday.
•  Most of the NE stays warm all week.
•  Rain next weekend with much chillier weather.
•  Northern Vermont could get some accumulating April snow.
•  Possible severe thunderstorms for the Mid Atlantic on south.

Below is a computer model run of next weekend’s possible storm.

Looking Into the Rest of April.
With this current weather pattern, April may average out to be much warmer and dryer than normal for the eastern third of the country. There may still be rain and chilly weather from time to time, including a possible snowstorm for Northern New England. Again, the average of the entire month may be warm and dry.

Below is a long range computer model showing above normal warmth for much of Canada and the US. Only the Western US into Western Canada looks to be near normal.


Wishing you a warm & happy Easter and a nice Passover.
We all deserve this awesome Summer preview after all the storminess of the past 4 months. Stay tuned for future updates as the flowers bloom under the warm April sun.

David Claghorn’s Weather Analysis
My e-mail: clagville@comcast.net

Become a fan of: SnoBoy Weather. On Facebook.



Smooth Sailing This Week.

Posted March 16, 2010 by claghornweatheranalysis
Categories: Uncategorized

A MUCH ANTICIPATED PRE-SPRING BREAK
After a wacky and a tragic giant of giant rain & wind storms this past weekend, that caused 7 deaths and over 10 inches of rain in parts of the mid atlantic and northeast, the seas are calming down and the sun is coming back out. Let’s give all those victims our thoughts and prayers. Just awful how devastating this storm was for many people. On a much brighter note, much of this week will feature tranquil conditions along with spectacular wall to wall March sunshine. Below is a computer model chart showing just how warm it will get by this weekend!

The chart below show’s possible temps by next Monday. Notice how much of the big cities from mid atlantic to the northeast may still be well above normal and northern new england starts to get cooler, if this model verifies.

Looking at our current pleasant weather, there is no reason not to believe it will continue to be warm until next Monday for much of the mid atlantic. The computer model run below shows how a cold front approaching from the west will bring rain and a change to chillier weather behind the front. The last week of Winter will be warmer than the first week of Spring for much of the country.

A change in the weather pattern again next week will open the gates of Winter for one last gasp (hopefully the last for most of us). By Monday night into Tuesday, a storm may develop along the cold front ushering in the colder air. Below is today’s computer model run showing the colder air and possible snow from western PA over to northern new england by Tuesday morning.

If this model would verify, it would give our swing into Spring a big step back into Winter. Rain would change to snow over much of the interior mid atlantic up thru northern new england. I must caution you not to get overly worried just yet as the model run below from last week, predicted a blizzard for this upcoming Friday and we know that is not going to happen. Are you ready for a big laugh? Look below and remember, it’s for this Friday, which will be the opposite from the computer run you’re about to see.

LET’S NOT ROCK THE BOAT FOR NOW
Just get outside this week and have fun in the sun and let me worry about any stormy seas that may appear next week. Stay tuned on this potential winter storm for next week (maybe that model was just off a few days-just kidding people!). You are better off just lighting up the grill this week, and keeping the snow blower ready for next week, just in case.

David (SnoBoy) Claghorn
E-mail me: clagville@comcast.net
Become a fan of: SnoBoy Weather on Facebook.
Northern New England Weather Center

Weather Drama Unfolds for Next Weekend.

Posted March 8, 2010 by claghornweatheranalysis
Categories: Uncategorized

Beautiful Sunny Skies Close Out a Mild March Weekend.

Conditions were perfect this weekend for the ski resort’s and outdoor enthusiast in VT and much of Northern New England on Saturday and Sunday as afternoon temps were in the 40′s along with cold and clear nights. These conditions will continue during the first part of this week. Daytime highs will be in the lower 4o’s with night-time lows near 20. This is the perfect set up also for a good sap run for VT’s all important Maple Syrup industry.

Next Weekend: a Different Picture.

Envelope #1
A storm system will be moving across the country during the week. This system will deepen as it moves east and taps into Gulf of Mexico moisture. Rain and thunderstorms will move northeast into much of the South and Mid Atlantic by Thursday. It will be warm enough that mainly rain will fall on areas that have a snow pack and flooding concerns are valid even several days out. It is still a question on how far north this first storm will go. Maybe some ice to start in some mountain valley’s around the Mid Atlantic, but mild air will be winning out. This area of moisture should get forced out to sea off the Mid Atlantic coast by blocking that is still in place.

Another storm will be moving north right on the first storm’s heels along the Atlantic Seaboard. As this storm moves north, there are 2 possible tracks this storm can take. The 1st possible track would be for the late week coastal low to actually track from the Southeast Coast NW towards Southern Pa. This would bring in flooding rains for much of the Mid Atlantic northeast to cover much of New England. Gusty SE winds would usher in Atlantic moisture and there would be possible thunderstorms and widespread flooding all over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Ski Resorts would be having a bad unexpected ending to a snowy winter. We don’t want this track!

Envelope #2 Could End-up Being a Heavy Wet Snowstorm for the Interior Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
If storm system #2 moves NE up the Atlantic Seaboard instead of NW, colder air would get pulled down from SE Canada and it would be just cold enough for a heavy wet snowstorm over parts of the interior Mid Atlantic and Northeast. This would actually be better than having track #1.

Stay tuned as I track these ominous storm systems during the week. Let’s all focus on having a big wet and juicy snowstorm instead of a major flood zone in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

David (SnoBoy) Claghorn
E-mail me: clagville@comcast.net

Become a fan of: SnoBoy Weather on Facebook.
Northern New England Weather Center

Baaaahhhh Baaaaahhh: The “MarchLamb” is in control for now.

Posted March 3, 2010 by claghornweatheranalysis
Categories: Uncategorized

Good Afternoon Everyone!
It seems like this current storm wanted to behave differently than expected. Moderate to heavy snow focused mainly on the Virginia Capes as well as the Long Island area in NY, SNE over to the Boston area. These areas got the snow early and the cold locked in enough as the storm moved further out to sea instead of passing over the N.C. Outer Banks as was forecasted. This morning the ocean storm took over and intensified forcing all the dynamics of the storm’s cold air and precipitation closer to the coast or just off shore. Dry air also wrapped into the storm causing a huge dry slot to develop over the same areas I warned about get heavy snow today. Right now moisture is filling back in around eastern PA over to NYC. Another band has set up over central PA and a mixture of snow and rain will continue over the afternoon hours with light accumulations. Stiff north winds will make it feel colder everywhere. Boston over to Cape Cod will get heavy snow at times into the afternoon hours for Boston and into the overnight hours for the Cape. Numerous rain and snow showers will fall from the Philly and surrounding suburbs over to NYC  with minor accumulation still possible on grassy or snow covered surfaces. As the storm really cranks up some areas could still see a brief burst of snow mixed with rain at times.
Click on map below for Animation.

Enjoy the Calm Before the Lion.
Looking into the extended period, more storminess will be setting up in the eastern part of the U.S. by later next week after a brief shot of warm air as we get into next week. I will study the weather pattern over the next few days and carefully show you another part of March that can roar like you’ve never seen before. Oh no…I woke the lion up. I’m Outta here!

Meanwhile Stay Tuned.

David (SnoBoy) Claghorn
E-mail me: clagville@comcast.net
Become a fan of:
SnoBoy Weather on Facebook.
Northern New England Weather Center

The Historic Winter of 2010 Continues to Roar Like a Lion.

Posted March 3, 2010 by claghornweatheranalysis
Categories: Uncategorized

Updated: March 2, 2010 @ 11:45pm

YET ANOTHER NOR’EASTER.
Tonight a storm is moving up along the eastern seaboard. An average of 8 inches of heavy wet snow fell from Tennessee over to S. Carolina. Currently snow is just north of Norfolk and moving towards Washington, D.C. which currently has a cold rain falling with wet snow starting to mix in. Overnight, Washington up to Baltimore will have a change over to wet snow. Accumulations will be about an inch on grassy surfaces.

PHILLY AREA NORTH AND EAST COULD GET HEAVY WET SNOW.
As the coastal low intensifies moving north east just off the New Jersey coast, bands of heavy precipitation will set up from SE PA including the Philly area and it’s suburbs over to N NJ. Mixed rain and snow will change over to wet snow by tomorrow morning and will gradually begin to accumulate. The grassy surfaces and trees will get the brunt of the snow including cars. Snow mixing with rain will continue to push north, but the heaviest area of snow, mixed at times with rain, will set up from Philly northeast to NW NJ. Generally 4 to 8 inches of snow will fall in this area with higher elevations seeing up to 5 to 10 inches. If the snow comes down hard enough in this area during the day, roads could become very slippery. It has to snow heavy in order to stick this time of year as the March sun angle is higher in the sky from 11am to 2pm. In the heavy bands of snow, very cold air will be produced by the storm’s dynamics – so roads could get tricky all day long. Temps will be in the low to mid 30′s.

NYC will have a hard time getting into the heavier snow accumulations because the snow bands should setup SW, W and NW of NYC. Furthermore, NW NJ could get the 10 inches if this band gets going strong and early enough during the morning hours. In the Metro NYC area, the snow may fall hard, but rain will be mixing in with the milder temps. As the storm moves north, the air temps will be milder with that March sun angle from NYC over to Boston. So look for 2-3 slushy inches of snow from NE of NYC to Boston.

Further inland from Johnstown PA up to the Mountains of Central VT and NH, snow will get underway from an upper level low moving over the area. Several inches are possible in these areas. Northern VT will get mainly snow showers with lesser accumulations. It is crazy, but the coldest air will be from SE PA over to NJ.

That is how I see this storm playing out. Lingering snow showers are possible from NJ up to Boston, MA Thursday morning. Along the shores look for gale force winds from the NNE whipping rain, sleet and wet snow around. This will be a nasty day for many in a historic winter we may never see again in our lifetime for the Mid Atlantic. Coastal flooding will also be occurring along with severe beach erosion.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD – DON’T BE FOOLED BY THE SHORT LIVED MILD SPELL.
A warming trend will set up for the entire eastern part of the country from the weekend in to early next week. Places like Northern New England
may get some of the mild air but not all of it.

A storm from CO. will move east over to the OH Valley by next Tuesday spreading rain showers as a cold front moves east. Ahead of the cold front temps could reach the 50′s in the Middle and Northern Atlantic states. As shown by the gfs computer model below – a low pressure system may ride up along the cold front delivering snow to places that have missed many of the bigger snows this winter from Northern PA up to Burlington, VT.

The way this winter is going you can expect some changes on the track of next week’s storm and this current model run is not set in stone. I’m giving you an overview and preliminary idea of the weather pattern next week adjusting north as we get into March. I have no changes from my earlier blogs. Before the 15 to 20 inch snowstorm hit Central and Northern VT last week as well as Northern NY over to NH, I predicted Northern New England would get into the action and the photo below illustrates how the snow arrived right on time. Thousand’s of people lost power with this storm from trees and power lines falling down.

Below is another time frame from the gfs computer model showing a Nor’Easter next Friday really winding up in Northern New England with many more storms afterwards dumping snow from PA north to Canada.

Stay tuned for further updates on this wild and historic snowy weather pattern that won’t stop this month despite the short warmup early next week.

David (SnoBoy) Claghorn
E-mail me: clagville@comcast.net
Become a fan of: SnoBoy Weather on Facebook.
Northern New England Weather Center


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